Скачать с ютуб The Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Prospects and Scenarios в хорошем качестве

The Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Prospects and Scenarios

The outcome of the war in Ukraine hinges significantly on this spring's Ukrainian counteroffensive, with massive implications for European security more broadly. Will the counteroffensive succeed? How should policymakers gauge the current risk of escalation to a direct NATO-Russia conflict? Moreover, with a US presidential election around the corner, what scenarios might play out this autumn? Are both parties likely to come to the negotiating table before the end of 2023, and if so, what must the West do to facilitate an outcome that enhances the security of the Euro-Atlantic region? 👥 Panelists: • Michael Kofman: Director, Russia Studies Program, CNA • Andrew Michta: Dean, College of International & Security Studies, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies • Anatol Lieven: Director, Eurasia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft 🎙️ Moderator: • Zachary Paikin: Non-Resident Research Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy ▶️ Timestamps: 0:00 – Panel Introduction 1:49 – Latest Nordstream Sabotage Revelations 3:13 – Trust between Ukraine and Western Partners 6:40 – Strategic consequences of Nova Kakhovka dam destruction 9:19 – Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Goals 11:10 – What constitutes Ukrainian success in this counteroffensive? 12:43 – If Ukraine makes gains short of expectations, is that a success? 16:58 – Does counteroffensive favour attacker or defender? 24:08 – Dynamics of in-fighting between Wagner and Russian military 26:57 – What happens if counteroffensive fails? 34:43 – How long can Russia keep fighting the war? 41:29 – Security guarantees for Russia? 48:21 – Security black hole 51:01 – Would Russia accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine? 54:31 – Would victory embolden Russia? 56:03 – Future outlook 🔔 Follow us below: • Website: https://peacediplomacy.org/ • YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/Institutefo... • Twitter:   / diplomacy_peace   • LinkedIn:   / the-institute-for-peace-diplomacy   • Facebook:   / peacediplomacyorg   • Instagram:   / peacediplomacyorg   👉 Donate: https://peacediplomacy.org/donate/