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Heading Toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan’s Status Quo

The U.S. government often asserts the need to maintain the long-standing status quo with China regarding Taiwan, presumably centered on understandings reached between Washington and Beijing at the time of their normalization. To sustain this status quo, both China and the U.S. regularly repeat their basic Taiwan policies: for China, an emphasis on peaceful unification and opposition to Taiwan independence; for the U.S., the One China policy and opposition to any unilateral moves by either Beijing or Taipei toward unification or independence. Meanwhile, a growing number of observers argue that the Taiwan status quo is severely eroding or no longer exists. To support this view, they point, among other things, to basic changes in the views of Taiwan’s populace regarding unification, increased Chinese military threats to the island, the violation of Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula in Hong Kong, and various U.S. statements and actions that supposedly contravene basic tenets of the One China policy. What is the “status quo” over Taiwan, and is it in fact stable or eroding? What are the major underlying forces that will determine whether the Taiwan situation moves toward conflict or stability? What needs to be done to reinforce and sustain the latter outcome? To discuss these complex questions and other related issues, the Quincy Institute hosted a webinar with Paul Heer, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Shelley Rigger, the Brown Professor of Asian Studies at Davidson College. Michael Swaine, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute, moderated. Download the full webinar transcript here: https://quincyinst.s3.amazonaws.com/w...