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How the War in Ukraine Changed Russia’s Power in the South Caucasus

Speaker Irakli Sirbiladze ReThink.CEE Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States Discussants Laurence Broers Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Chatham House Olesya Vartanyan Expert on security policy in the South Caucasus Moderator Zsuzsanna Végh Program Officer, German Marshall Fund of the United States Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed the nature of the European security architecture. It has also raised questions about Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence and leverage over former Soviet republics, which it considers key for its great-power aspirations. For years, Russia was largely able to use its military, political, and economic leverage to secure its core interests vis-à-vis the three South Caucasus states, but Georgia’s Western-oriented foreign policy, the West’s growing inroads into the region, and the shift in Armenia and Azerbaijan’s balance of power in Nagorno-Karabakh gradually presented the Kremlin with challenges to its influence. Now, as the war in Ukraine has shifted Moscow’s focus away from the region, power dynamics there are again in flux. How have Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia been impacted by Russia’s changing focus since February 2022? Has the war in Ukraine reshaped Moscow’s priorities and ability to project power in these countries? How have the three countries adjusted their relationships with Russia? The participants will discuss Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus, the shifts in its leverage in the region since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and its consequent ability to realize its interests as the war goes on. They will also explore the implications of this new situation for actors in and outside the region.