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How a Positive Tipping Point Cascade Can Accelerate the Low Carbon Transition

Full Title: How a Positive Tipping Point Cascade in Power, Transport and Heating Can Accelerate the Low Carbon Transition Abstract: The energy system is becoming increasingly intertwined due to electrification in heating and transport. This carries risks and opportunities for speeding up the transition. Opportunities involve lowered electricity costs, V2G applications, repurposed EV batteries for grid applications and cross-sectoral induced innovation. On the other hand, fast electrification can pose spatial constraints in densely populated regions and lock-in of fossil fuel assets. Here, we model climate policies in four sectors: power, residential heating, transport and freight. We find that phase-outs and mandates are most effective in bringing down costs and creating cross-sectoral opportunities. A coal phase-out can bring forward the cost-parity point by up to 4 years in other sectors in some countries, whereas a zero-emission vehicle mandate can bring this point forward by up to two years in other sectors in some countries. Our results demonstrate that targeted and coordinated deployment goals can play a key role in policy design for the low-carbon transition. Bio: Femke Nijsse specializes in modelling energy systems and the economy. With a background in climate physics, she earned a Ph.D. in mathematics, focusing on multi-model comparisons and statistical techniques related to decadal variability, historical warming, and climate sensitivity. In energy research, Dr. Nijsse contributed to the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project, informing energy policies in China, Brazil, India, the UK, and the EU. She has worked on E3ME-FTT model's power sector representation, using evolutionary economics for technology diffusion. In addition, she has been studying sectoral interactions and possible tipping cascades in electrifying sectors.