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WTO Trade Forecast 2022-2023

Russia-Ukraine conflict puts fragile global trade recovery at risk. The WTO expects merchandise trade volume growth of 3.0% in 2022 —down from its previous forecast of 4.7% — and 3.4% in 2023. "The double whammy of the pandemic and the war has disrupted supply chains, increased inflationary pressures, and lowered expectations for output and trade growth," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. The most immediate economic impact of the crisis has been a sharp rise in commodity prices. Despite their small shares in world trade and output, Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of essential goods including food, energy, and fertilizers. These supplies are now threatened by the war, with potentially dire consequences for food security in poor countries Learn more at wto.org