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Russia Is on a Risky Offensive. Will It Backfire?

Check out my new book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.) Russia is currently on a major offensive targeting Avdiivka, a small Ukrainian city that has managed to hold on despite being on the frontlines for a decade. That Russia is interested in taking Avdiivka is not surprising. What is confusing is the timing. Russia has a presidential election in March. Given the apparent domestic status quo, the election is unlikely to threaten Putin's tenure. But a major failure in Avdiivka might cause that to change. This video offers some explanations for what may be going on here. 0:00 Russia's New Offensive 2:16 Elections in Autocracies 4:04 The Timing of the Offensive 8:47 It's a Mistake 10:32 The Kremlin's Strong Position 11:34 The Kremlin's Weak Position 14:38 Trial Run 17:42 Window of Opportunity 19:06 Which Explanation Is Right? Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/... By armyinform.com.ua: https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/29/... By Kremlin.ru: http://tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/... http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne... By Government.ru: http://archive.government.ru/eng/docs... By Mil.ru: https://structure.mil.ru/management/i...