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IFTF Foresight Talk—Automated Horizon Scanning to Monitor Changing Systems with Wigdan Seedahmed

How can organizations effectively scan and understand the horizon in fast-paced, rapidly evolving environments? More so, how can this be done without an entire team of people dedicated to ongoing research? Wigdan Seedahmed, Product Management Consultant at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), has spent the last handful of years tackling this issue by building an automated horizon scanner. Her innovative tool was first used by UNDP Sudan to mainly answer the questions: "What's next after mapping and identifying signals of change?", "What comes next after building future scenarios?", and "How do we operationalize foresight?". This involves addressing key challenges faced by the UNDP and partners at country office level. A localized version is being used by UNDP Egypt (launching publicly in October) to mainstream innovation in UNDP's work and reap the benefits of using innovative tools to tackle country office challenges, such as resilient programmatic response and intervention design, data lags, high costs of data collection, and conflicting data sources. Tessa Finlev, IFTF Affiliate and Organizational Futurist, joined Wigdan in conversation, on Sept 26, 2024, to will demo the tool and explore how the automated horizon scanner works, how it's currently being used, and other potentially exciting use cases! About the speaker: Wigdan Seedahmed brings over 12 years of international development and strategic management experience across Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA, Europe, and Central Asia. With expertise in innovation management, project implementation, stakeholder engagement, and digital-oriented solutions, she has led diverse teams in international organizations, social enterprises, the private sector, and non-profits. Wigdan holds a master’s degree in international affairs from Sciences Po Paris and a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering. Originally from Sudan, Wigdan now resides in Stockholm, Sweden. For more information, explore her portfolio: https://sites.google.com/view/wigdan-... Learn more at https://www.iftf.org/foresightessentials IFTF Foresight Talks: Moderated, publicly accessible, hour-long sessions that introduce some of the world’s foremost foresight strategists, designers, and leaders, IFTF Foresight Talks broaden the conversation within the global foresight community. Each offers a unique futures perspective that supports IFTF’s mission: to shape a better future for all. 0:00 Overview of the session and agenda including how to interact via Zoom, upcoming Q&A, and a brief introduction of IFTF’s mission and offerings. 1:46 What is Automated Horizon Scanning?: Introduction to the concept of Automated Horizon Scanning and how it monitors rapidly changing systems. Overview of IFTF’s mission to help organizations and individuals become future-ready through foresight tools and research. 5:41 Wigdan's Background in Foresight: Wigdan El Tayeb’s journey into strategic foresight—from working in Sudan and the UNDP to integrating foresight with data analytics and complex systems thinking. 9:31 Building Foresight Capacity through Horizon Scanning: Exploration of how horizon scanning combines data, emerging trends, and complex systems to help organizations anticipate change and develop strategies for the future. 14:01 Real-world Application of Horizon Scanning (Sudan Project): Case study of Sudan’s Horizon Scanner: How Wigdan and her team used foresight to map political systems, predict emerging issues, and even forecast undesirable outcomes like the Sudanese conflict. 20:51 Foresight and Methodologies for Data Analysis: Discussion on how foresight methodologies can quantify qualitative data, manage data overflow, and identify signals of change for actionable insight. 26:16 Sudan and Egypt Horizon Scanners: Breakdown of the Sudan and Egypt Horizon Scanners: Customizing foresight tools for specific regional challenges, political mapping tools, and data analysis to support decision-making and innovation. 33:31 Features of the Horizon Scanners: An overview of the main features within the Horizon Scanners: political mapping tools, emerging issue trackers, and data-driven project simulators. 40:51 Impact and Outcomes of Horizon Scanning: Measuring the impact of foresight tools on organizational agility, risk mitigation, and project success. Example: 40% increase in delivery rates in Sudan due to insights gained from horizon scanning. 47:21 Operationalizing Strategic Foresight: Discussion on turning foresight into strategy—how organizations can use horizon scanning for short, medium, and long-term planning. 52:31 Q&A and Insights on Data-driven Foresight 1:01:31 Conclusion and Next Steps: Wrap-up of key takeaways from the conversation and an introduction to future foresight tools like the Blue Ocean Identifier.