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Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF)

What is discounted cash flow, and how to get started on building a DCF model. A big part of what the discounted cash flow method is all about, is right there in the name: it involves estimating future cash flows, and discounting or translating them to today’s equivalent. A lot of people use the DCF method in order to decide whether to buy, sell or hold a share of a publicly listed company. Your first steps into using discounted cash flow can be fairly easy! ⏱️TIMESTAMPS⏱️ 00:00 What is discounted cash flow 00:31 Present value 01:21 Definition of discounted cash flow 01:54 DCF method limitations 02:46 DCF modeling options 04:51 Discount rate in DCF model 07:20 Free Cash Flow in DCF analysis 09:02 Number of forecasting periods in DCF 09:26 Simplest DCF possible 10:23 Enterprise value and equity value 11:31 DCF with current year free cash flow 13:20 Present value of a growing perpetuity 14:07 Draft DCF outcome comparison 15:22 Building a DCF model in Excel 17:11 Analyzing revenue data 19:59 Analyzing margin data 21:06 Analyzing operating expenses 23:18 Analyzing Operating Income 23:41 Analyzing Other Income 24:12 Analyzing interest expense 24:52 Effective tax rate 25:41 Analyzing Net Income 25:59 Non-cash adjustments 28:51 Analyzing CapEx 29:54 Reconciling free cash flow 30:09 Forecasting in the DCF model 30:54 Forecasting revenue and gross margin 32:37 Forecasting operating expenses 34:03 Forecasting Operating Income to Net Income 35:53 Forecasting Cash From Operating Activities (CFOA) 38:39 CFOA growth vs revenue growth 39:16 Forecasting CapEx spending 39:38 Free Cash Flow estimate 40:09 Applying WACC in the DCF model 42:20 Terminal Value in the DCF model 43:46 Enterprise Value in the DCF model 45:05 DCF outcome summary 46:06 Reviewing share price dynamics 47:23 Confirmation bias 47:48 Summary of practical DCF tips If you understand the concept of present value, then it will be easy to understand discounted cash flow. My definition of the DCF method: an attempt to estimate the value of a share today, based on projections of how much cash the company could generate in the future. You can also perform a discounted cash flow analysis on the level of the company itself, or on the level of a single investment. In discounted cash flow modeling, you have some important choices to make: you can keep it very simple, or make it very complex. Let’s do both in this video, in a discounted cash flow #valuation case study of Verizon telecom. Come look over my shoulder as I go through various methods and calculations, and interpret the numbers. The nice thing about keeping your #DCF modeling simple is that you don’t need a “deep” knowledge of the company, its financial statements, or finance and accounting terminology. The big risk is obviously that you might underestimate the company’s complexity and dynamics. Most people go in the direction of complexity, which might look and feel more impressive, but is dangerous if you lack “clear thinking” skills and are unable to see the big picture. If you have hundreds of line items in your discounted cash flow model, do you really understand which of those are the high impact ones? It’s easy to get lost in spreadsheet complexity, with numbers not tying out or formulas incomplete. Only go complex when you’re able to handle it! There are basically three elements that you need to make a choice on: discount rate, number of line items in your model, and the number of forecasting periods. Each of these has a simple version, and a complex version, and options in between. In the second half of the video, we build a DCF model in Excel! Choose a level of complexity that is manageable for you to build a discounted cash flow model. So where do you even start, when you want to build a DCF model in Excel? First step is to load, analyze and understand historical data. This can help you understand the drivers of the business, trends, and expected ranges for certain parameters. Probably the most useful part of building a discounted cash flow model is getting a deeper understanding of the company. Once that first step is done, you next review and incorporate the company’s guidance, forecast each line item in a solid and prudent way, and “zoom out” to make sense of the Big Picture. Philip de Vroe (The Finance Storyteller) aims to make accounting, finance and investing enjoyable and easier to understand. Learn the business and accounting vocabulary to join the conversation with your CEO at your company. Understand how financial statements work in order to make better investing decisions. Philip delivers #financetraining in various formats: YouTube videos, livestreams, classroom sessions, and webinars. Connect with me through Linked In! Want to get access to bonus content, and/or express your gratitude by buying me a cup of tea? Join my channel as a member through    / @thefinancestoryteller