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What is the Actual Probability that a Marriage Will End in Divorce?

This video discusses the topic of the divorce rate and the probability that a marriage will end in divorce. For a number of years, research indicated that about 50% of all marriages would end in divorce. That statistic has been challenged recently. Some say the statistic is closer to 40% or 45%. There is evidence to support both theories, however, there is no strong evidence to suggest the 50% is no longer true. First, second, and third marriages have different probabilities of divorce (42%, 60%, & 73% respectively). Higher income, higher education, and getting married later are associated with a decreased probability of divorce.

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