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Perspective on Global and Emerging Risk

Colonel (GS) Laurent Currit, GCSP Head of Defence and Diplomacy (https://bit.ly/2Ob3HpO) interviews Dr Jean-Marc Rickli, GCSP Head of Global and Emerging Risk (https://bit.ly/2O9nPZt). You have private companies like Eurasia group, McKinsey that are drafting yearly report us report on specific topics, you have organisations like the WEF, you have professional organisations, like the Geneva Association for the Insurance Industry, or ISACA, which is for governance, the Institute of Strategic Risk Management, for more business risk, then you have those on technology, the EPFL International Risk Governance Center. And obviously, above that, you also have national risk assessment in terms of security or national security report. And, and then also international organisations, the UN provides lots of resources. So, what is very, the most important thing, when you look at risk is really defining what you're interested in. So, for me, I'm very interested in the evolution of geopolitics and geopolitical risk as well as technology, I have to say that I look at this report. And it takes years to build up if you want the capacity to have the structure the geopolitical structure in place in your head. Yes, so as I mentioned, the 2021 report is heavily influenced by the pandemic. And it's no surprise that the short term risks that are highlighted by the report are direct consequences of the COVID-19 crisis and they are mostly economic and societal in the sense of the risk of employment losses, the risk of widespread youth disillusionment, because the youth has been hardly hit by this crisis, they are also issues of digital inequality, because over the last year, most of the world has moved into a digital mode, but access to digital capabilities are not equal. Then, in a midterm horizon on three to five years, the economics risks are much more important. And this is logical because basically, if you create unemployment, if youth is disillusion that will create economic situation where it's more likely to be quite bad. And so here debt crisis feature predominantly, asset bubbles, price instability, inflation, are considered as potential risk. But what is also interesting is that what we've seen in terms of the COVID-19 diplomacy where some states have tried to push their own agenda has if you want magnified the emerging geopolitical tensions and the realignment of global geopolitics, where the unipolar moment of the United States is vanning. And you have the emergence now of a contestant, which is China. But at the same time, you have also because the United States was withdrawing from international affairs, you have also some regional powers that have taken over uncertain part of the world. Think about Turkey, think about Saudi Arabia, for instance. And so here what we are seeing emerging, some would say it's a new bipolar system, I would tend to disagree with that what we're seeing are some people a multipolar system, I personally would characterise this as an apolar system, meaning that no states have the ability to prevail across all dimensions of power. And if that's the case, then you have a much more fluid and conflictual, international environment. But states trying to instrumentalise this crisis, traditional geopolitical issues like spread of weapons of mass destruction related to this international environment, which is much more fragmented, is leading to a situation where possible accidents, misuses, or potentially deliberate uses of weapons of mass destruction or hostile action could be foreseeable. And even in worst case scenario, if you think about what could happen because of the impact the social impact of this crisis, it could lead to disintegration of states, collapse of states, and also potentially collapse of the multilateral, international system. So, what is interesting is that you have this traditional global risk. But now, the international community and some organization like the WEF, and also the GCSP, is increasingly thinking about what we call “frontier risk”. And these frontier risks are risks that are not yet have not yet materialised but are on the horizon. And for the first time, the 2021 report has included reference to from curious they mentioned, accidental war, an archaic uprising, brain machine interface, exploitation, collapse of established democracy, geomagnetic disruptions, neuro-mechanical control, or deployment of small scale nuclear weapons. Here, what is very interesting is to look at the DNA as of this frontier risk, and most of them are related to the growth of emerging technology, which is exponential. And a topic that I'm heavily working on brain computer interfaces, these devices, which could potentially, and are already for some, able to read what you think and also influence the way your brain works. If you think about that, you need to think also about potential misuses and how they could be weaponised and used in the military.