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The 4 Key Threats Facing The West | Niall Ferguson, Konstantin Kisin & Francis Foster

1. The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These four nations, Niall Ferguson says, are working with increasing cooperation and coordination, threatening democracies the world over. “Ukraine is one, Israel's another, Taiwan is probably next.” 2. The one-sided arms race - The USA used to be the ‘arsenal of democracy’, Niall says, but now it has fallen well behind China. “China is now the ‘arsenal of autocracy’” and, in the event of a hot war with China, “the US would run out of precision missiles in about five days, more or less.” 3. China’s economic power - “China has much greater resources technologically than any previous rival that the United States and its allies faced. The Soviet Union never had more than about 42% of the USA’s GDP.” China’s is “certainly in the 80% range and is above 100% if you do a purchasing power parity calculation.” 4. The USA’s worryingly low economic resilience - US debt servicing costs are about to overtake defence spending. “With interest rates rising and the deficits in excess of 5% of GDP as far as the eye can see…the US isn't actually able to cope with three military crises at once.” In this week’s ARC Off-Stage Conversation, historian Niall Ferguson meets Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster of TRIGGERnometry to discuss the future of Western civilisation. Konstantin and Niall discuss some of the major threats we are facing, but Niall reminds us that these are no worse than those faces 50 years ago. The 70s saw huge inflation problems, deteriorating geopolitics in many regions, and concern about morality. But by 1980, “Ronald Reagan is elected. Nine years later, the Berlin Wall comes down, and two years after that, the Soviet Union's gone.” Yes, the West currently faces serious problems and threats, but decline is never inevitable. We must remember our history because, despite “the declinists’” obsession with crisis and collapse, there is always hope for renewal. We hope you enjoy this fascinating discussion between 3 world-leading commentators. --- Subscribe to our Channel to be the first to catch the next ARC off-stage conversation:    / @arc_conference   Konstantin Kisin is a political commentator, and TRIGGERnometry host. Francis Foster is a writer, speaker, and TRIGGERnometry host. Niall Ferguson is a renowned historian, Stanford and Harvard fellow, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Watch the full conversation on TRIGGERnometry's channel:    • Niall Ferguson: How Civilizations Col...   --- We are delighted to announce that the next ARC Conference will take place between 17-19 February 2025! Subscribe to our mailing list for updates and follow us on social media as we explore the better story: ARC Mailing List: https://www.arcforum.com/subscribe X/Twitter -   / arc_forum   Instagram -   / arc_forum   Facebook -   / alliance.for.responsible.citizenship   LinkedIn -   / alliance-for-responsible-citizenship   --- ARC, the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, is a global community with a vision of a world where every citizen can prosper, contribute, and flourish. Join us in shaping this vision, as we draw on the best of our inheritance to build hope-filled future. Let's seek solutions to the problems we face that tap into humanity's highest virtues and remarkable capacity for innovation and ingenuity. Learn more at https://www.arcforum.com --- 00:00:00 Debunking Cyclical Theories of History 00:02:10 Comparing Today's Challenges with the Past 00:04:30 Niall’s 4 Threats Facing The West 00:07:55 Understanding How Civilisations Fall 00:11:30 Explaining the Nihilism of Younger Generations