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Why I am CAUTIOUS in these 4 INDUSTRY GROUPS ? ⚠️🛑

⏩ Join Deep Dive memberships here: https://bit.ly/Joinbutton ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⏩ Join for exclusive members community content along with regular videos and posts:    / @janaklotwala   The 2 levels of memberships included: ➤ The Super fans ! (Rs. 89/month). This membership includes: Regular Stock Market Updates (Community Tab) & Blogs Special Emoji & Badges ! Special Discount coupons on courses... ➤ The Deep Divers ! (Rs. 299/month). Learn about one interesting stock (business) every month in detail. The following benefits are included in addition to the above benefits of superfans ! Min 1 DEEP DIVE per Month !(Fundamental Analysis) Member shout-outs (At discretion) Regular Stock Market Updates (Community Tab) & Blogs --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⏩ Download StockAdda with Janak App (Andriod): https://play.google.com/store/apps/de... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⏩ Download StockAdda with Janak App (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/in/app/myinsti... ⏩Follow us on: ➤Instagram:   / stockadda_with_janak   ➤Twitter:   / janak_lotwala   ➤Linkedin:   / janak-lotwala-4bb05564   ➤Quora: https://www.quora.com/profile/Janak-L... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⏩Playlist:    / @janaklotwala   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: 1. All the content of this channel is for educational purposes only and not for recommendation in any form. Kindly consult your financial advisor before any investment decisions. 2. We are not responsible for any losses arising out of information shared or the accuracy of same. 3. We are not sebi registered financial advisors and dont provide any such services "Stock Market Cycles and Bubble Identification" In this video, we explore the critical topic of stock market cycles and how to identify potential market bubbles. Join Janak as he delves into the characteristics of market bubbles and shares insights on how long-term investors can protect their portfolios against euphoric market conditions. In this video, Janak will show how to identify bubbles in the market with the help of the examples of five industry groups as a case study. We will first start with the bubble cycle which has 4 phases which are stealth phase, awareness phase, mania phase, blow off phase. The strength phase has high smart money concentration, and the company has been here for a long period of time, e.g., IEX and IRCTC. Now the institutional investors become interested in the second phase as they start seeing the growth in earnings and sales of the companies. If the awareness increases, then comes the mania phase, where the industry gets media attention, research reports are published, etc., and also investors start getting greedy and experience FOMO, so now the industry gets into a delusion state and a euphoria is created. Then comes the blow-off phase, where supply increases demand and falls into a bull trap, leading to a downtrend, which is called capitulation. Using real-world examples from sectors like railways, defense, PSUs, and PSEs in the Indian stock market, Janak provides in-depth case studies to illustrate the warning signs of a market bubble. He also discusses the mental model of "inversion" championed by investing legend Charlie Munger, emphasizing the importance of building a margin of safety, especially in the current high-value environment of the micro, small, and mid-cap space. Charlie Munger has said in the model that to solve any problem, invert. So, for example, to be successful, instead of looking into the activities that will lead you to success, focus on the activities that you shouldn't be doing to become successful. We can also apply this model to investing; instead of identifying and researching the top 1% of a stock or industry, we can evaluate those stocks or industries that have some characteristics of bubbles so that we are cautious before investing in any industry or company. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting your journey, this video offers a timely reminder of the need to approach the stock market with prudence and discipline.

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