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Forecast Discussion - April 4, 2023 - Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak Begins Today

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information. April 4, 2023: Update on the significant, bimodal severe weather outbreak that is forecast for today from the Midwest to the Mid-South. The SPC has maintained two Moderate risk areas (level 4 of 5), one across southeast Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri; and one from southern Missouri into western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. The questions we discussed in last night's forecast discussion remain this morning, including dry air aloft, shallow low-level moisture, vertical mixing, capping, and more. Still, if robust storms can form in either mode, strong/long-track tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail are all possible. Tomorrow (April 5) could see a continuation of the significant severe threat, especially across Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, where the SPC has an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms with all hazards, some significant, possible. Chapters 0:00 Introduction of risk areas 2:30 Discussion for today's event (April 4) 34:24 Discussion on tomorrow's event (April 5)