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Federer's SHOT SELECTION ANALYSIS Vs Shapovalov

In tennis, when it comes to tactics, one of the most important factors we need to consider is placement. Where players place the ball on the court has a huge influence on the outcome of the point. When people talk about placement, there are many opinions about what the right thing to do is. You might hear things like deep to the backhand, short angles and so on. This is a very extensive topic and many people will give you their best advices based on their believes, knowledge and experience. Besides all their advices, I think it’s also useful to see real data taken from professional matches and see by yourself where the pros are placing the ball more often. That’s what we will do today, we will take a professional match as an example and analyze the most frequent placements. The match we will take as an example is the semifinal match during the 2019 edition of the Miami Open between Federer and Shapovalov. The process we will follow is the following. First, we will divide the court into different zones. Horizontally, the court is divided into 4 zones – two for the right side and two for the left side. Vertically, the court is divided into 3 zones. The first zone covers from the net to the service box and the other two zones represent the rest of the court divided in equal sizes. This gives us a total of 12 zones that we will name from A to L. It’s important to see that with this arrange, the opponent’s side of the court is not a mirror of your side of the court. For example, if we talk about exchanges between zones A, these are cross-court exchanges because A for your opponent is at the opposite side. Having said all these, let’s see where Federer placed his shots during this match. As you can see, Federer’s most frequent zones where zones E and H followed by B and F. Here we can start see our first set of clues about Federer’s shot selection. We see that most of his shots aimed Shapovalov’s backhand. We also see that most of his shots even though they had depth, they also had a margin of safety as Federer avoided targeting the corners or any zone next to the borders of the court. These first numbers give us a starting point. However, when players consider where to place the ball, their own position on the court has a huge influence on that decision. Because of this I decided to take this analysis a little further by considering Shapovalov’s previous shot. This will make sense once we start looking at the numbers. Let’s start with every-shot Federer placed at E. In total we have 44 shots and from those 44 shots, 28 shots came from Federer’s backhand side while 16 came from the forehand side. Next, we have position “B”. In total Federer hit 25 shots that landed at B, from those 25 shots, 20 came from the backhand side and 5 from the forehand side. For position F, Federer hit 24 shots there, 14 came from the forehand side and 10 came from the backhand side. Finally, we have position H. Federer hit 40 shots there, 27 came from the backhand side and 13 came from the forehand side. So, now we know that not only Federer focused on targeting Shapovalov’s backhand more often but most of these shots came from his own backhand side which tells us that Shapovalov also focused on targeting Federer’s backhand. Finally, we can also arrange these numbers from these four zones and merge them into two groups, the shots Federer hit from his forehand side and the shots Federer hit from the backhand side. These are the numbers that might me the most useful to know and to consider when developing a strategy. From the backhand side he aimed Shapovalov’s backhand 68% of the time and from the forehand side, he aimed Shapovalov’s backhand 73% of the time. With all these numbers, I think we can draw some final conclusions about Federer’s shot selection during this match. First, he avoids unnecessary risks by not aiming the zones next to the borders of the court, second from the backhand side, 2 out 3 shots aimed Shapovalov’s backhand. Third, the backhand/forehand ratio gets bigger on the forehand side which could mean that Federer only hit a forehand down the line once he had put Shapovalov in an uncomfortable position and he could finish the point with that shot. And fourth, the down the line shot, from the backhand side unlike the forehand down the line was used to either attack Shapovalov’s backhand or to defend from Shapovalov’s cross-court forehands. Before I finish this video, I think there are a couple of important things we need to consider... Federer Vs Shapovalov Tactical Analysis:    • Federer Vs Shapovalov TACTICAL ANALYS...   Join our Facebook Group here:   / tennistheory