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CEBRAnar #25: Estimating pest and disease consequences: a myrtle rust case study

Estimating the consequences of potential establishment and spread of pests and diseases is important for supporting evidence-based decision-making regarding biosecurity risk. The ‘Value model’, developed by CEBRA and DAFF, is a simulation tool that combines spatial data with economic and biological information to measure the dollar value of Australia’s biosecurity system across different assets and predict how different decisions could affect both the environment and the economy. As part of the Estimating Pest and Disease Consequence project, a plan was developed to update the parameters used in the Value Model, with an increased focus on environmental assets. Twelve new pests and diseases were added to ensure those with potential for high environmental impact were represented as well as developing a novel method for estimating environmental consequences in particular cases with excellent data availability. Join us as Dr Thao P. Le (TK), Research Fellow in Data Science, discusses how this innovative consequence method was used to measure how exotic strains of myrtle rust, a fungal plant disease, can affect a plants ability to capture and store carbon from the atmosphere and the resulting dollar value loss from damage to assets. ────────── Subscribe to learn more about biosecurity and the work we do. Find us on social media: Twitter:   / cebra_uom   Facebook:   / cebrauom   Website: https://cebra.unimelb.edu.au/