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Black Swan Hunting: Addressing emergent risk

Many future uncertainties are unknowable, leading to emergent risks that catch us unawares. These emergent risks are popularly known as Black Swans, and it is very hard for us to prepare for them in advance. Or is it? In this keynote presentation for the 11th International Iranian Project Management Conference, held in Tehran in February 2016, David Hillson explains how to identify the conditions that lead to emergent risk, and how to develop robust responses for whatever might arise. Resilience is the key, building flexibility and capacity into our organisations and projects, so that we can bounce back to success, even if a Black Swan emerges in our midst. Emergent risk matters, and unknowable does not mean unmanageable.