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A Practical Guide to Forecasting New Products

Forecasting is the “ground zero” in business management. Without knowing what demand there is for a product, there is no effective budget – and without a budget, there is no hiring, production or advertising. Without forecasting there is no business. Forecasting impacts everyone. Forecasting has long been a topic surrounded by mystery and smoke and mirrors. Today, we’re equipped with more sophisticated approaches, methodologies and tools for forecasting than we were even 20 or 50 years ago. Ever since Everett Rogers published his findings on product adoption in Diffusion of Innovation (published in 1960), spreadsheets the world over have incorporated his 5-phase innovation curve into business forecasts. The video is aimed at mostly marketers or market research managers, many of whom may not to be overly technical, but interested in establishing within their own organizations a method for forecasting incorporating customer feedback and well accepted formulae they can apply. In this video, I walk you through the theory and demonstrate the steps in the process to arrive at an accurate forecast. The process has two main phases: 1. In phase one, a conjoint analysis is used to establish a market potential. 2. In the second phase, the market potential is applied to the Bass Model principle. In the two-step process, my intention is to establish a standard procedure – a notion that conjoint is an integral part of forecasting. And while forecasting can certainly be done without conjoint, a process that involves conjoint creates a solid foundation on which to build corporate forecasts on. Once a market potential (i.e.: preference share) is calculated, I will walk through how to apply the Bass model once the market potential is calculated to arrive at a reasonable product forecast. My hope is to leave you “well armed” with a solution to a frequent need, and an understanding of how conjoint analysis is a necessary tool in your toolbox to provide accurate forecasts. www.choicebased.com These are works I refer to in this video: Joan Schneider and Julie Hall - Why Most Product Launches Fail. Harvard Business Review, April 2011 Theodor Modis, PhD. Predictions, published by Simon and Schuster, 1992 Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation (3rd edition), London: The Free Press 1983 Frank M. Bass: A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables, Management Science Vol. 15, No 5. Theory Series (Jan 1969) pp. 215-227 Jerome Massiani and Andreas Gohs: The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies, Research in Transportation Economics, 2015 06.