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The Ultimate Guide to Expected Goals

David Sumpter tries to cover all of the important things you need to (and might not) know about football's most famous equation. History, improvements, limitations and the future. This follows up lessons 1 and 2 on creating xG models on this channel, but is also standalone if you understand the basic concepts of xG. The code for this lecture can be found here: https://github.com/Friends-of-Trackin... Specifically, I use: 6MeasuresOfFit.py Cited articles and links:   / the-geometry-of-shooting   Pollard, Richard, and Charles Reep. "Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 46, no. 4 (1997): 541-550. Numberphile:    • Anatomy of a Goal - Numberphile   Caley: https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation... Twelve xG: https://twelve.football/analytics?ana... -Tracking data xG: https://twitter.com/jernejfl/status/1... Big chance:   / footballs-magical-equation   http://business-analytic.co.uk/blog/e... http://business-analytic.co.uk/blog/a... When to use xG:   / should-you-write-about-real-goals-or-expec...   Twelve pass value: https://twelve.football/analytics?ana... Review of value models: https://www.americansocceranalysis.co...