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Nickel Squeeze Concerns Spark Rally as EV Demand Evolves

On prices, First half of the month, nickel briefly touched prior lows around $15,500 per tonne but bounced back up into $16-$16,500 range, where they have spent the bulk of recent time, but saw a big rally where prices moved more than $2,000,$1/lb over $18,000 per tonne (Now at $17,600) as concern about ore supply keeping market tight despite demand weakness. Nickel inflows into inventory a little heaver –but consistent with seeing additional exchange deliveries before market balances. One of the key themes from LME week was some optimism from Chinese participants as the latest dose of stimulus is having a change in sentiment – good because Chinese macro issues have an impact on both stainless and battery markets. Sulphate prices have come off a bit, and ore squeeze driving prices have paused and have seen prices for ore/NPI/stainless come off a little bit. Continued weakness in lithium prices is dampening any need for the battery supply chain to order raw materials, and they are happy to continue to destock. Monthly INSG report – global mine supply only up 1.5%, most notably seeing no growth in Indonesia supply – has stayed flat now for the last 9-months and with announced mine closures, ROW mine supply has declined. In terms of nickel output, Indonesia has also been flat for the last 9-months (1st half year still had 15% growth, but unless the pace of output picks up, it will show almost no growth in 2nd half). Demand growth has slowed to 5.5% for 1st half of 2024 – lack of restocking in the battery sector and macro weakness in China having an impact. Things will improve into year-end, but may not get to a double-digit forecast. INSG also had a bi-annual meeting. World primary nickel production was 3.360Mt in 2023, and is forecast to reach 3.516Mt in 2024 and 3.649Mt in 2025. The estimates do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions. World primary nickel usage was 3.193Mt in 2023. The INSG forecasts an increase to 3.346Mt in 2024 and 3.514Mt in 2025. Therefore, the implicit market balances are surpluses of 167kt in 2023, 170kt in 2024 and 135kt in 2025. NOTE: THIS FORECAST does NOT have disruption allowance in supply (typically 3-5%), which would put 2025 in deficit – particularly with only 5% forecast demand growth (has been slow in 2024, which should mean stronger in 2025). The critical number to watch is ore imports into Indonesia from the Philippines – up another 66% month-over-month and now representing 5% of global supply. Some funny numbers in reported Chinese ore inventory levels (remember China needs to stock ore in advance of the Philippines rainy season) – The top 7 ports have been shrinking to flat for the last 6-weeks, but total port inventories have been magically reported to continue to climb up magically – remember that they fiddled with stainless production numbers!! Chinese participants showed optimism at LME Week due to recent stimulus measures. Sulphate prices have decreased slightly, along with ore/NPI/stainless prices. Lithium price weakness is causing battery supply chain destocking. INSG Report Highlights Global mine supply up only 1.5%, with Indonesian supply flat for 9 months. Demand growth slowed to 5.5% for H1 2024. 2023 production: 3.360Mt; forecasts for 2024: 3.516Mt, 2025: 3.649Mt. 2023 usage: 3.193Mt; forecasts for 2024: 3.346Mt, 2025: 3.514Mt. Projected surpluses: 167kt (2023), 170kt (2024), 135kt (2025). Note: Forecast doesn't include typical 3-5% disruption allowance. Key Trends Indonesian ore imports from Philippines up 66% month-over-month. Possible supply squeeze expected in November/December. EV market grew 20% in Jan-Aug 2024 vs. 2023 (BEVs +10%, PHEVs +46%). European EV market declined 4%, while Chinese market grew 33%. Company News: Canada Nickel (CNC) LOI from Export Development Canada for $500 million USD. New advisory board and senior management appointments. Positive exploration results and Environmental Impact Statement filing. Magna Mining Acquired Sudbury assets from KGHM. Crean Hill underground mining startup with positive NPV and IRR. Western Mines Group Reported good bulk ultramafic grades and high-grade intervals. Perseverance Metals Confirmed high-grade drilling at Lac Goyot project in Quebec. SPC Nickel Positive exploration results from Muskox project in Nunavut. Good infill drilling results at West Graham. Power Nickel Widest interval to date with significant Cu-PGM values. Overall, the nickel market is experiencing supply concerns and price volatility, while the EV sector shows mixed growth across regions. Several mining companies reported positive exploration results and strategic developments.